India is likely to be the world’s fastest-growing large economy in the next 10 years, driven by digitisation, favourable demographics, globalisation and reforms, predicts a Morgan Stanley report. According to the global financial services major, the trend line in India’s annual GDP growth has been accelerating to 6.9 per cent in 2000s, from 5.8 per cent in the 1990s, and this momentum is likely to continue in the next decade as well. Morgan Stanley expects digitisation will provide a boost of 50-75 bps to GDP growth and forecast that India will grow to a $6-trillion economy and achieve upper-middle income status by 2026-27.
India’s GDP growth slipped to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent in April-June as disruptions caused by demonetisation spilled over to the third straight quarter amid slowdown in manufacturing activities. Experts believe that reforms over the past year have created disruption in India’s GDP numbers, but the medium term growth potential of the country looks bullish. “We expect India’s real and nominal GDP growth to compound annually by 7.1 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively, over the coming decade,” Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
Moreover, gross FDI inflows are expected to amount to $120 billion by 2026-27, almost double the current 12-month trailing run rate of $64 billion. The report noted that the impact of higher GDP growth is expected to get reflected in corporate earnings momentum. “We think India’s stock market could be among the world’s best performers in the next 10 years, leading to India’s market cap rising from around $2 trillion to around $6 trillion,” the report stated.