Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to create a net increase of 1.7 million jobs worldwide by 2030, even as it changes the nature of work across industries, according to a new forecast by Gartner.
The research firm estimates that AI will generate 10.6 million new jobs globally while eliminating 8.9 million over the same period. However, the impact will not be limited to job creation and displacement. More than 435 million employees worldwide, or just over 20% of the global workforce, are expected to see changes in their roles, including what they do, how they work and the responsibilities they handle.
The findings suggest that the impact of AI on employment will extend beyond direct job losses. As organisations introduce AI into business operations, they are also likely to change workforce requirements, redefine existing roles and reconsider how new positions are created.
AI could create more jobs than it eliminates
Gartner said organisations that are more advanced in AI adoption are increasingly looking at the technology as a way to redesign operations and combine workforce capabilities with technology, rather than treating it solely as a means of replacing employees.
“Organisations most advanced in AI execution view AI not as a replacement for labour, but as a catalyst to reinvent operations and rebalance workforce and technology capabilities to compete in changing markets,” said Helen Poitevin, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner.
The forecast also distinguishes between jobs directly eliminated by AI and positions that businesses choose not to create. Gartner estimates that by 2030, around five million people will have experienced delayed hiring because business and IT executives postponed the creation of new positions.
In 2026, executives’ decisions to defer the creation and hiring of 1.3 million positions were among the significant effects on the job market. This came alongside an estimated 2.2 million job losses and 1.6 million job gains.
“Deferred jobs are not the same as lost jobs. They simply aren’t created,” said John Lovelock, Distinguished VP Analyst and Chief of Research at Gartner.
This distinction highlights another way AI could influence employment. Even when organisations do not lay off existing employees, they may reduce future hiring if they believe technology can take on some of the work previously assigned to new positions.
More than 20% of workers will see their roles change
Gartner estimates that between 0.4% and 1.8% of workers globally will experience job losses directly attributable to AI by 2030.
However, the broader impact on work is expected to be considerably larger. Just over 20% of the global workforce, representing approximately 435.5 million employees, will need to adapt to changes in their roles.
These changes could affect the tasks employees perform, the way they carry them out and the boundaries of their responsibilities. In practice, this could mean employees working alongside AI systems, taking on different responsibilities or developing new skills as organisations redesign business processes.
Gartner also cautioned that the employment impact will vary across industries, geographies and job functions. Poitevin said executives should avoid applying the same assumptions about AI’s impact across different sectors, as each industry faces distinct challenges and risks.
Technology sector faces higher AI-related job displacement
Gartner’s analysis identifies different employment trends across asset-intensive industries, the public sector and the technology sector.
Asset-intensive industries, which include businesses operating physical products and capital-intensive infrastructure, account for the largest share of global employment. By 2030, Gartner expects these industries to create 6.4 million jobs and lose six million. AI-driven job losses are projected to affect 0.4% of the global workforce in this category.
In the public sector, the firm projects 0.4 million job gains and 0.9 million job losses by 2030. Gartner also noted that AI investments are unlikely to be sufficient to address the sector’s future skills shortages, which are being driven by other factors.
The technology sector is expected to experience a more pronounced impact from AI. Nearly 70% of its workforce has high exposure to AI, according to Gartner. The sector is projected to create 1.9 million jobs and lose 0.4 million by 2030. AI-related job losses are expected to affect 1.8% of the global technology workforce.
The figures indicate that while the technology industry could see substantial job creation, it is also likely to experience greater direct displacement from AI than the other sectors covered in the forecast.
Workforce planning becomes an AI adoption priority
The forecast points to a more complex relationship between AI adoption and employment than a straightforward increase in automation-led job cuts. Organisations will need to consider not only which tasks can be automated but also how existing roles, future hiring requirements and employee skills will change.
For business and IT leaders, this makes workforce planning an important part of AI implementation. Decisions around automation will need to account for the responsibilities employees retain, the skills required to work with AI systems and the roles that may emerge as business processes change.
Gartner’s findings suggest that the larger employment challenge through 2030 may not be limited to the number of jobs lost. It will also involve how quickly employees and organisations adapt to changing responsibilities and new ways of working.