6G could add $1.24 tn to the global economy by 2040, but a spectrum shortage threatens to wipe out $520 billion of it

The next generation of mobile networks could reshape the global economy, and the window to get it right is closing. A new report from the GSMA, which represents mobile operators worldwide, finds that 6G could add $1.24 trillion to the global economy in 2040, equal to 0.7% of global GDP.

There is a catch. If governments fail to release enough spectrum, as much as $520 billion, or 42%, of that opportunity could disappear.

The numbers at a glance

The headline figure is $1.24 trillion in additional global economic value from 6G in 2040, a boost of 0.7% to global GDP. Set against that is $520 billion, or 42%, of the value at risk if spectrum is scarce. Mid-band spectrum accounts for 70% of 6G’s economic contribution, while low-band spectrum accounts for roughly 25%.

The findings come from Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G, published today. The report says 6G will generate value well beyond what networks would deliver if 5G remained the most advanced technology.

Why 6G matters: the network that thinks

Unlike earlier generations, 6G is expected to be AI-native. Networks will not only carry data but also sense their surroundings, support intelligent decision-making, and merge terrestrial and satellite connectivity.

The report names five main sources of new economic value: connectivity for future AI systems, industrial automation and robotics, enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access, integrated sensing and communication, and non-terrestrial networks that extend coverage to underserved areas.

Together, these will let businesses improve productivity, develop new products and services, and reach sectors and locations that today’s networks cannot fully support.

Manufacturing and financial services are the two biggest beneficiaries, taking 20% and 19% respectively of 6G’s additional economic contribution in 2040. Construction follows with 13%, and information and communications technology with 12%.

Greater China is expected to see $390 billion in additional economic value by 2040, followed by North America at $290 billion and Europe at $225 billion. The scale of the gains will depend on how quickly 6G is adopted, national infrastructure, and how well businesses integrate the new technologies.

What it means for India

The report does not give a separate figure for India, but its warning lands in a country where the central spectrum decision has been deliberately put off. In February 2026, India’s telecom regulator TRAI recommended that the upper 6 GHz band stay reserved for mobile services, but that the 6425-6725 MHz and 7025-7125 MHz ranges not be auctioned in the forthcoming sale, with the question re-examined after the outcome of WRC-27. That conference is scheduled for 18 October to 14 November 2027 in Shanghai, so little is likely to happen on the band before 2028.

India 6 GHz Spectrum: Wi‑Fi vs IMT Showdown
The GSMA’s other asks are live in India too. TRAI’s February recommendations also covered the 600 MHz band, which the Department of Telecommunications had asked it to revisit alongside the upper 6 GHz ranges. The regulator proposed extended 600 MHz incentives and auctioning all IMT bands to expand competition. If every band on the table were sold, the spectrum would be worth at least ₹2.1 trillion ($23.1 billion) at TRAI’s suggested reserve prices.

For Indian operators, the trade-off is between certainty now and flexibility later. Waiting for WRC-27 keeps the door open to a globally aligned 6G band plan, but it also leaves the clear, timely national spectrum roadmap the GSMA is calling for unfinished until the middle of next year at the earliest.

The spectrum problem

Mid-band spectrum will drive 70% of 6G’s economic contribution in 2040, because of the capacity and performance advanced digital services need. Low-band spectrum will contribute roughly 25%, providing coverage in rural areas, inside buildings, and anywhere higher frequencies struggle to reach.

Constrained access to these ranges could cut 6G’s contribution by up to $520 billion in 2040. The GSMA warns these losses would come on top of any wider impact on existing mobile networks, which share the same spectrum.

John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA, said: “6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy. The next generation of mobile technology will help power AI, transform industries and unlock new levels of productivity across the economy. But these benefits are not guaranteed. More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today to fully realise the economic potential of 6G in the decades ahead.”

The clock is ticking: WRC-27

Crucial international spectrum decisions are due at the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 (WRC-27). The GSMA is urging policymakers to act now and sets out three priorities.

First, it wants at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum released by around 2030, with more capacity to follow as demand grows. This should include upper 6 GHz, supported by additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz bands.

Second, it wants the 600 MHz band made available for 6G, strengthening rural and indoor coverage and supporting widespread connected devices, with 500 MHz considered where appropriate.

Third, it calls for clear, timely national spectrum roadmaps, giving operators the certainty to plan investment and deploy networks ahead of demand.

Giusti concluded: “Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth. With 6G on the horizon, governments have an opportunity to ensure their economies can benefit from the next wave of digital innovation. Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen.”